*Update: On April 4th, President Trump announced a 75-day extension, with the new deadline set to June 19, 2025. We’ll provide more details as they unfold, but the basics of this blog remain true: it’s an uncertain landscape, and preparation is key.*
For the past year, TikTok Shop has been navigating choppy, uncharted waters, with the storm cloud of a U.S. ban looming on the horizon. As the ever-changing deadline approaches, sellers who’ve ridden the platform’s wave of opportunity are (again) facing tough questions: Will TikTok still be available to my customers? Should I keep investing in my Shop—or investigate other platforms? And most importantly: What happens next?
At Rithum, we’ve been charting this uncertain journey alongside our clients. While no one can predict exactly how the tides will turn, we’re here to help you read the skies, adjust your sails, and prepare your business for TikTok Shop staying live in the U.S., shutting down services, or continuing in uncertainty with an extended ban deadline.
The future of TikTok Shop in the U.S.
The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) currently gives ByteDance (owner of TikTok) until June 19, 2025 to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a nationwide ban. The platform briefly shut down for 12 hours in January 2025, in accordance with the original deadline. But even when the ban was lifted, for 25 days afterwards the app wasn’t available for download. As of this post, TikTok Shop’s current state is operational as usual for current users and available for new user download. But with the Supreme Court ruling to uphold the ban, the potential for another TikTok Shop shutdown is looming . . . along with another potential extension. Here’s what to plan for in any scenario.
3 fast answers to the 3 biggest questions
If the TikTok ban goes into effect . . .
- Will sellers lose all access to their TikTok Shop? Possibly, depending on whether TikTok enacts another shutdown similar to January, or simply stops new downloads and updates.
- Will customers still be able to shop on TikTok in the U.S.? If there’s no total shutdown, yes. But only existing users will have access and the experience could degrade without updates.
- Will TikTok Shop still be available outside the U.S.? Yes. The TikTok Shop continues to thrive globally, with recent expansions into Spain, Ireland, Italy, France, and Germany.
The big takeaway from the January ban is no one knows how a ban would play out. But even in the worst-case scenario of a complete TikTok shutdown, sellers have options.
Here’s what to prioritize, no matter what happens with TikTok Shop
Priority #1: Optimize TikTok ASAP. Even as deadlines are extended, the murkiness around a TikTok ban continues. If the June deadline turns into a ban, there’s still plenty of opportunity within and outside of TikTok Shop.
TikTok Shop’s unparalleled algorithm and affiliate network create a unique and engaging social shopping experience. If new users are unable to join in the U.S., the existing user base will become even more valuable as scarcity will help drive demand and sales with a highly engaged audience (assuming TikTok does not shutdown the platform for existing users if a ban were to go into effect). And beyond the U.S., TikTok Shop is still growing, with fresh opportunities for expanding your reach.
Whatever happens, the first immediate step is to enhance your TikTok presence and shopping experience as much as you can, as soon as you can, to ensure the best user engagement. Over 7 million U.S. businesses use TikTok, and a recent Oxford Economics study estimates that the platform drives $14.7B in revenue for small businesses and a further $24.2 billion in total economic activity.i While the uncertainty is frustrating, it’s not a reason to divest from the platform—rather, it’s a reason to get as much out of this powerful tool as you can, while you can. TikTok Shop’s global presence is incredibly valuable and will remain so even if a U.S. ban goes into effect (not sure how to capitalize on TikTok’s global audience? Contact us).
Priority #2: Diversify into additional platforms. As many experienced during January’s ban, relying on TikTok Shop (or any single platform) leaves you vulnerable to disruptions. This is not a TikTok specific issue, but one that commerce leaders have learned throughout digital history. In 2021, a 7-hour Meta outage brought online businesses that relied on the Facebook and Instagram platforms to a standstill.ii As Business Insider put it, you’re “at the mercy of an almighty landlord” when you’re “just renting space” on single platforms.iii
The takeaway for TikTok sellers: Ride the TikTok Shop wave through these rough seas . . . but have a lifeboat at the ready.
Priority #3: Lean on Your Platform Partners: Rithum is already integrated with TikTok Shop and other major platforms, including Meta – Shops on Facebook and Instagram, making diversification easier. Our solutions help you prepare for cross-platform shopping by syncing inventory, offers, and customer service across TikTok Shop, Meta, YouTube, and other social channels.
Where will customers go if there’s a ban?
As always, the best way to reach customers is to go where they shop, scroll, and socialize. If TikTok disappears in the U.S., TikTok users will still be online: they’ll just migrate elsewhere. When India banned TikTok in 2020, Instagram rushed out Reels with India as the beta-tester . . . and within two years Reels accounted for 20% of time spent on Instagram and became its “fastest-growing content format by far.” Overall, most of India’s TikTok audience shifted to Reels and YouTube Shorts, making India the largest market for both Instagram (362M users) and YouTube (500M users) after TikTok’s exit.iv On the flip side, businesses that invested only in Facebook during its peak suffered when TikTok exploded in popularity.v
After January’s scare, businesses said that Instagram (52%) and YouTube (42%) are the top platforms they plan to invest more into if TikTok Shop goes away in the U.S, with their own websites trailing not far behind (38%).vi No matter what happens, agility is the biggest advantage. Sellers who can adapt quickly, diversify wisely, and optimize every platform are set-up to survive this disruption, or any similar technology upheaval (remember when X was Twitter?).
Whether TikTok stays afloat or sails off into the sunset, we’ll help you ride the waves and chart a smart course for every channel. If you’re a current client, contact your account team to evaluate your overarching marketplace strategy. If you’re not yet a client, reach out here so we can get you in touch with our marketplace experts.
Sources
i. https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/04/hoping-to-stall-a-ban-tiktok-says-it-generated-14-7b-for-us-small-businesses-last-year
ii. https://mashable.com/article/facebook-outage-small-business-impact
iii. https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-instagram-outage-business-losses-money-2021-10
iv. https://time.com/7208112/what-happened-when-india-banned-tiktok/
v. https://entrepreneurship.babson.edu/businesses-and-tiktok/
vi. https://clarifycapital.com/impact-of-tiktok-ban-on-businesses
